OK, so let’s play what if.
The lay of the land:
First, recall that Senator Dodd is up for re-election in 2010.
Second, recall that Senator Lieberman is up again in 2012.
The Governor gets to name a replacement for either Senator’s seat should he for some reason vacate it before the end of his term.
The seat would then be contested in the next even-numbered year.
If a Congressman vacates his seat, the Governor appoints someone to their seat a Special Election is called to fill the seat for the rest of the term, which is up every even-numbered year. So, the winner is seated in 2009, and you’re immediately raising money because the next election is 2010.
Scenario 1: McCain wins. I start with this because it is has the more interesting combination of possibilities.
Were McCain to win, Lieberman goes to Secretary of Defense or State. Rell appoints someone to the seat, and the seat is up for election in the 2010 cycle (it will then be up again in 2012). So potentially you could have four Senators in one seat in the space of four years! The possibilities are large just with this seat.
But it gets more interesting if, deciding he wants to spend more time with his family, Senator Dodd were to decide that he will not seek re-election in 2010. You now have two United States Senate seats open at the same time! Someone will have to do the research to know just how rare this circumstance would be.
The amount of money and effort that would pour into the state would dwarf the Lamont/Lieberman/Schlesinger contest in 2006. It would suck the air out of the Governors race. That would favor the incumbent Governor Rell, should she be seeking reelection.
In other words, McCain winning could be a disaster for Connecticut Democrats.
Scenario 2: Obama wins.
Were Obama to win and Dodd to become, say, Ambassador to Ireland, Governor Rell would have the power to appoint his replacement. The seat is up in 2010. Expect Blumenthal to launch. The other potential aspirant often mentioned is Rosa DeLauro.
Say Rell appoints Chris Shays. If Shays is still seated, that opens the seat in CT04. Whom does Rell appointWho are the likely candidates? On the Republican side, State Senate Republican Leader McKinney is the prohibitive favorite to run for his father’s former seat. On the Democratic side there are a couple of possibilities, Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch is one, but the more likely candidate at this stage of the game is State Senator McDonald from Stamford/Darien.
Blumenthal wins against Shays or the other most likely selection, former CT02 Congressman Rob Simmons.
And we can take it from there…
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