Not looking good for Himes, conversely looking good for Shays. Diane Farrell polled ahead (Reuters/Zogby) of Shays and lost. Twice. I should point out the CT University poll always had Shays ahead. The Courant reports:
U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-4th District, enjoyed a 10-percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Jim Himes last month, according to a poll released today by Sacred Heart University and its radio station, WSHU.
Shays led Himes, 40.5 percent to 30.5 percent, with 29 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 22 to 26, a week before Shays’ vote for that $700 billion financial rescue package that became law Friday.
The poll found that Shays has succeeded in branding himself as a maverick and that more than 80 percent of voters in the Fairfield County district favor candidates willing to cross party lines.
But a 29 percent undecided vote generally does not reflect well on a 21-year incumbent.
“People are hanging in there find more,” said Jerry Lindsley, director of the university’s polling institute. Of Himes, he said, “A lot of the numbers go to a campaign that hasn’t gotten through yet.”
Of the total sample, Shays was viewed favorably by 53.3 percent, compared with 28 percent for Himes. Nearly 66 percent could offer no opinion of Himes.
Lindsley said a 55 percent favorable rating often means an incumbent is safe.
“He’s right on the line,” Lindsley said.
When those with no opinion were removed from the sample, Himes was viewed favorably by 81.2 percent and Shays by 65.5 percent.
“You really can’t start talking about issues until people know you,” Lindsley said. “Here we are two months out, and people are still learning.”
In the presidential race, the poll found voters in the district favoring Barack Obama over John McCain, 47 percent to 37.7 percent, with 15.3 percent undecided.
The poll was based on a telephone survey of 400 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
source: Courant, Poll Gives Shays 10-Point Lead Over Himes, By MARK PAZNIOKAS, Ocotber 7, 2008
