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Himes poised to take CT04


by Chris MC


September 21st, 2008 · 7 Comments

Swing State Project has posted a campaign memo from Himes’ polling outfit stating that the race for CT04 is a dead heat.

The campaign’s tracking poll, fielded September 17th and 18th, shows that Democratic challenger Jim Himes has pulled even with Republican Congressman Christopher Shays. Each candidate has 45 percent support. Additionally, their support is equally strong with 27 percent certain to support Himes and 28 percent certain to support Shays. An even contest six weeks before Election Day means that the contest now favors Himes.

I’ve been hearing rumors that Shays’ re-elect is in the 30’s, and this memo confirms that.

Shays’ name recognition is as high as it is going to get, and Himes’ still has room to grow and time to do it. That math forecasts a growing share of likely voters as the campaign continues. Himes also has the benefit of being the better man for the economic times, the challenger in a change election, and a political outsider when polls have Congress’ approval rating in single digits.

The addition of seasoned political pro Dana Houle to take the campaign helm through the home stretch bodes well. There is a lot of work to be done over the next six weeks, but at this stage of the game, Himes has Shays exactly where he wants him.

Tags: Chris MC · Congress · Himes

7 Responses so far ↓ “Himes poised to take CT04”



  • 1 Andrew // Sep 21, 2008 at 3:37 pm

    Eh, I’ll wait till I see a poll that isn’t commissioned by a candidate.. or atleast by a more trustworthy firm.

  • 2 Anonymous // Sep 22, 2008 at 3:36 pm

    I honestly don’t believe that Christopher Shays will lose this election unless we have straight party voting and Obama wins by a landslide.

  • 3 Charles the Hammer // Sep 22, 2008 at 5:55 pm

    Chris Shays was 100% correct on his support of the surge in Iraq, not that we’d ever read or hear about any success there. In light of past predictions, I’ll just say that you lefties make me laugh…

    Diane what’s-her-name?

    Ned who?

  • 4 turfgrrl // Sep 22, 2008 at 6:50 pm

    Er, I seem to remember Diane also polling ahead of Shays. Sadly the results turned out differently.

  • 5 Chris MC // Sep 22, 2008 at 6:57 pm

    Hey, I said poised. Not mission accomplished.

    [heh, heh]

  • 6 turfgrrl // Sep 22, 2008 at 7:08 pm

    ChrisMC: More interesting in Himes campaign is the campaign manager switch. Gotta say the retro DCCC attacks ads on the dumbest issues since Smoot-Hawley, isn’t inspiring even a close contest. Does anyone care what positions Shays took in the 80’s? Do we see next up: Shays preferred Space Invaders over PacMan from the DC braintrust?

  • 7 Chris MC // Sep 22, 2008 at 8:10 pm

    Have to admit, their media strategy is puzzling. Mailers haven’t been great, to say the least.

    They should focus on Shays’ current weirdness. For example, how can you enthusiastically endorse Sarah Palin and call yourself a supporter of contraception, nevermind choice? Where he once boasted that he took no lobbyist money, today he rakes it in. Shays has sold out in a number of ways.

    He’s been in Washington too long. Nothing independent about him. And, what is up with those commercials where he fawns over Obama - as if we’re not going to dig up the clips of him saying Obama isn’t qualified to be President. It’s just dishonest.

    Himes is legitimately the better man for the job at this point in our history. He’s almost a model Fairfield County individual - his background comports closely with constituents in the bedroom communities, and he and his party legitimately claim to represent the interests of the rest of us less fortunate people.

    Most of all perhaps, his knowledge of and experience in the financial services industry make him uniquely qualified to represent Fairfield County in Washington.

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