Most media is suggesting that Obama and Huckabee won something in Iowa. I’m not sure what was won, Iowa is perhaps the biggest waste of political energy since the Internet. I’d maybe go as far as saying the television, but really, when you look at modern presidential campaigns, the way in which to communicate to mass amounts of voters is all Internet these days. The real news coming out of Iowa was that the participation in the caucusses for the Democrats at least, was double what it was in 2004. That is the front page story coming out of Iowa because it might portend for the olden days of yore when everyone was an American when Republicans were promising a chicken in the pot and a car in every driveway while the nation was responding to a Democrat in every household. A roiling economy and disastrous foreign policy will do that to the electorate even these days.
In 2004, the total turnout for Democrats in Iowa was 124,000. In 2008, the reports say 227,000. That is huge. The New York Times has a great graph. The turnout for the Republicans was also up, but not by much. Republicans in Iowa suggested that Rudi Giulliani might reconsider his bid for the hearts and minds of Republicans west of NYC.
It is likely New Hampshire will shuffle the deck for both parties, but the reality is that February 5th, with 23 states of primaries out there, will settle the viability of campaigns. For months now, the real story has been about which campaign will have a ground game in all the states, and money is the fuel that drives organization.
In Connecticut, there’ll be a mad scramble picking off the former backers of Dodd, but that won’t help tell the likely outcome of the February 5th primary, at least for the Democrats. Democrats in Connecticut are split into two factions of ultra liberal and ultra moderate. Edwards has a good ground game, so I expect a 33% three way race there. The Republican race will either make or break McCain. Huckabee is a nonstarter here, so its between McCaine and Giulliani. If McCain falters in New Hampshire, its Giulliani’s to lose.
