Not really a surprise to anyone who was looking at Dodd’s internals, but Senator Chris Dodd is to officially announce what people have been privately saying for months. Dodd is retiring and will not seek another term as Senator. The whys, officially –the generic match up polls, Dodd’s controversies with Countrywide and his presidential aspirations are the main storyline. But the real storyline is the one campaign flunkies, particularly on the Democratic side are worried over.

In one short year, Democrats have gone from the brand that was unstoppable to the brand that everyone loves to beat up on. The problem, how can you go from hope and change, to 1000 page bills that do neither. As they say they say, the devil is in the details.

Roughly, 2010 is shaping up as an election that Democrats are worried about. Dodd’s internal polls had him struggling for support of the Connecticut base Democratic party flunkies. That number, for months just wouldn’t rebound. With a lack of support amongst Democrats, that placed emphasis on your average voter. For that, campaign flunkies looked to two election cycles to read the tea leaves. The 2006 Senate race between Senator Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. The actual Republican candidate was irrelevant. Lieberman squeaked out a victory because at the end of the day, stalwart Democratic voters weren’t enough to tip the race to Lamont. Lieberman, despite being reviled by many Connecticut Democrats never lost his support amongst his base voters and moderate voters who weren’t engaged in the daily Democratic food fight.

The 2009 Connecticut municipal elections also added an inflection point to the political landscape. Connecticut voters were increasingly asking their elected officials, “what have you done for me lately,” and finding no answers voting for change, in a Republican direction. The significance of this is apparent when you look at high concentrations of registered Democrats who vote in Republican candidates. Danbury, Middletown, New Britain, Norwalk and Stamford.

Dodd’s retirement opens the race up for the eternal ever so hopeful Democratic candidates who have been coveting higher elected offices for years. The next totally unsurprising announcement will be that Dick Blumenthal will official announce he is seeking the Senate seat. His candidacy is virtually as guaranteed a win as a WWE wrestling match. Something Linda McMahon, one of the Republican candidates seeking the nomination for the Senate race should know about. Blumenthal’s success as a Senate candidate keeps open the scramble for all the constitutional officer seats that the next generation of Democratic candidates have been coveting.

That’s where the real pressure on Dodd’s internal polling was coming from. Supporting Dodd wasn’t in the best interests of too many Democratic candidate hopefuls, and in a roundabout way, Dodd’s forays into presidential politics took him off the incumbent game of keeping the home fires stoked.

In addition to Dodd, another �Democratic senator announced his retirement, Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota.

I’m glad that someone is taking a look at the provision in the recently passes Senate health care reform bill that has Nebraska’s medicare Medicaid reimbursement at a full 100%. The Courant’s Christopher Keating�reports:

In a move being made by other states,�Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell called for legal action Wednesday if Nebraska receives more Medicaid money than the other 49 states as part of the national health care bill.

Rell wrote a letter to Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal regarding a provision inserted into the massive federal legislation that would fully fund Medicaid for the home state of Senator Ben Nelson, a Nebraska Democrat. The provision has been widely reported as part of the many deals struck to reach a compromise on health care.

Across the country,�attorneys general in at least seven states are voicing similar concerns about the Nebraska compromise and�questioning its legality.

The Senate vote on the bill is scheduled at 8 a.m. Thursday. The Christmas Eve vote is highly unusual as the Senate has not been in session on that day in the past 46 years.

Unlike Connecticut, Nebraska would be able to receive 100 percent reimbursement of its Medicaid costs if the provision is enacted and signed into law by President Barack Obama. Currently, Connecticut receives 50 percent of the cost for Medicaid, which is a federal-state program that provides health care for the poor.

“The inequity of this provision is astonishing,” Rell wrote Wednesday in her�letter to Blumenthal. “The�doling out of favors for senators is appalling. The cost of this federal health care bill is beyond comprehension because of all the special provisions included to garner the 60 votes for passage.”

“By the time Washington finishes with this proposal and drops it at the taxpayers’ doorsteps, it will be monstrous,” Rell said. “The�Senate may get their votes, but the American taxpayer will get the bill. The best Christmas gift Congress could deliver to the American people would be to strip out every special consideration, every gift, every piece of pork and concentrate on the heart of the matter – real and affordable reform.”

Right on. Strip them out, but then wouldn’t that derail Chris Dodd’s attempt at erasing his very negative polling numbers in Connecticut? From another story, this time from Politico’s John Bresnahan:

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) is using every last bit of clout he has accumulated during three decades in the Senate, calling in favors, winning sweetheart deals and steering hundreds of millions of dollars to his home state.

He’s one of the most politically vulnerable Democratic senators, and he’s not being shy about using his influence to insert into 2010 spending bills dozens of earmarks for senior citizen centers, low-income heating assistance, education programs, new buses and highway funds in Connecticut.

Dodd is pushing the Pentagon to buy more Connecticut-built aircraft engines, and he’s pressing for more federal dollars for high-speed rail in the Nutmeg State.

And his earmark largesse doesn’t include a $100 million provision he anonymously stuck into the Senate Democratic health care package, money that Dodd wants to go to the University of Connecticut’s medical center.

At first, Dodd didn’t want to claim credit for that one, but he ’fessed up when asked by The Associated Press.

“With a tough reelection battle next year, Sen. Dodd is trying to move anything in Washington that isn’t nailed down up to Connecticut,” said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a spending watchdog group.

Ellis’s group estimates that Dodd — either by himself or with other lawmakers — has secured 92 earmarks worth at least $121 million for Connecticut.

I think Rell is thinking along those lines too, not to say the Nebraskan Medicare Medicaidlargess is particularly bad for Connecticut when you consider that the medicare tab for the state is about 20% of the budget, or 3,724 million. About half of that is covered by the feds, so that leaves 1.8 billion on the hook for Connecticut Taxpayers.

With recent headlines bemoaning polls, and pundits�referring to Senator Chris Dodd as the embattled�Senator, it’s no surprise that the drum beats from Washington are beating the tune that very off the record–Connecticut Democratic officials have been privately saying for weeks, Dodd is practically unelectable and so ….

Sharira Toeplitz of CQ-Roll call makes the analysis:

We have a statement by Rob Simmons and a statement from the spokesperson of Sam Caliguri that they are sticking to the Senate race courtesy of the Courant.

“There has been speculation that in the event of Gov. Rell’s retirement, I or other Republican U.S. Senate candidates may enter the race for governor,” former congressman Rob Simmons said in a statement.�”[M]y experience in national defense and foreign policy as a 37-year veteran of the U.S. Army and as an intelligence officer combined with my skills as a legislator are among the reasons I am best-suited to the U.S. Senate.

“Further, the Republican Party must nominate for the Senate someone who is tried and tested in difficult races, and as the only Republican with a record of defeating entrenched Democrat incumbents, and as the only Republican consistently leading Senator Dodd in the polls, I believe I am the best candidate to lead us to victory in this race.� My plans remain unchanged.”

Sam Caligiuri’s spokeswoman said the state Senator from Waterbury is also�planning to stay in the U.S. Senate race instead of switching gears and running for�governor.

But RollCall is painting a different picture about the Senate race that Simmons and Caliguri might want to pay attention too. It’s all about money and delegates.

With about 1,600 GOP delegates poised to pick the party’s nominee at their annual convention in May, this could be one contest in which spending heavily on television ads has diminished returns.

Five Republicans have lined up to run for the chance to challenge Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), one of the most vulnerable Senators up in 2010. Former Rep. Rob Simmons was viewed as the early establishment frontrunner, but since then at least two of the candidates have demonstrated that they are willing to fund their own campaigns to varying degrees. That means it’s even more likely the Republican fight will be carried on to an Aug. 10 primary — three months after the party faithful select their desired nominee.

According to Republican state GOP Chairman Chris Healy, the task is for candidates to court and persuade as many of the 1,600 delegates from the 169 Republican town committees as possible until the May 21 convention.

“It is a challenge, but we’re a small enough state and these committees are small enough and they’re cohesive enough that they do it by meeting with town committees in their regular meetings,” Healy said.

According to RollCall, Linda McMahon has already put $3.5 million into her Senate campaign coffers. She’s been making the rounds of local party flunkies.

“Since I announced in mid-September, I’ve done over 100 events,” McMahon said. “I’m having individual meetings with [Republican town committee] chairmen and further meetings with the town committee.”

McMahon declined to say whether she would drop out of the contest if she did not win the Senate nomination at the convention or if she would continue to pursue a bid if she got enough support to get on the ballot without the nomination. Even if she didn’t have enough support at the convention, McMahon would have the funds to support a petition drive to get on the ballot.

The other deep pocketed candidate is Tom Foley, former ambassador to Ireland, who has put in $539k into his campaign coffers seeking the senate gig. Rounding out the Republican field is Peter Schiff who according to his web site out raised Chris Dodd’s $900k.

Meanwhile, the Connecticut GOP hasn’t picked yet the majority of its delegates since party rules call for the election of new party chairs in each RTC. Darien perhaps is the poster child of warring factions within its RTC locally, but the rise of teabaggers within the state doesn’t bode well for many RTCs.

source:�RollCall, GOP Senate Hopefuls Court Audience of 1,600 in Connecticut, By Shira Toeplitz, Nov. 10, 2009,

The very crowded field of Democratic challengers to M. Jodi Rell’s invisible re-election campaign just got one more candidate. Shortly after the ink dried on the municipal elections dried, Ned Lamon announced his candidacy. New Haven Independent’s Paul Bass broke the story, which is a story within a story of how political news is belonging to the realm of the digital media. Bass had this to say:

Lamont plans to strike his nascent campaign themes at an annual address he delivers Thursday at Central Connecticut State University, where he teaches. He plans to talk not about controversial top Rell aide Lisa Moody, but about a new report about state finances from Moody’s Investor Services.

The strategy, and the issues focus, promise to differ markedly from Lamont’s Senate campaign in 2006. (He’s pictured at the top of this story at a debate during that race.)

That year, Lamont ran as the “true” Democrat against conservative Democratic incumbent Joe Lieberman. Lamont was championed by�anti-Iraq war, pro-public financing and pro-universal health care Democrats who have a disproportionate influence in primaries. And he indeed�won the primary. (He�lost the general election to Lieberman, who ran as a Republican White House-backed “independent.”)

This time, in the 2010 governor’s race, Lamont joins five other Democrats already “exploring” or actively mounting races. (Read about them�here and�here.) They include Secretary of The State Susan Bysiewicz and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, who have strong party bonafides and ties to liberal constituencies (especially Bysiewicz). Because of Lamont’s personal wealth, he didn’t need to announce as early as the others in order to raise money. But his move Wednesday doesn’t come as a surprise: He’s been�laying the groundwork for a run for months.

Malloy issued a statement within an hour of Lamont’s decision becoming public Wednesday.

“As I travel around the state exploring a run for governor, I’m getting an overwhelmingly positive response to the vision I offer and the track record I have�to back it up,” Malloy said in a release. “I’ve done what Gov. Rell has failed to do: I’ve created jobs, provided more health care, made my communities and neighborhoods safer, and helped lead the way on important issues like green technology and transportation. I’ve known Ned for many years and consider him a friend. I welcome him into the discussion about Connecticut’s future.”

State GOP Chairman Chris Healy said Wednesday that he’s not worried about a Lamont candidacy. “I’m not sold on him as a viable candidate,” Healy said. He said Lamont still has to demonstrate he knows what’s going on in this state.

The impact of all this will be on the bread and butter elections of state reps and state senators. Whatever hopes that the Republicans gain traction in the Hartford legislature will not only be a sideshow to the circus that the Democratic primary for Governor will hold, along with whatever challenge to Dodd that arises from Democrats, with the Republican primary to unseat Dodd. If the election fatigue wrought by last year’s presidential is any indicator, by the time the general election rolls around, Connecticut may be electioned out. Both the national Dems and GOP will be looking once again at Connecticut for Governor/Senator action that they can use to rally something. Already, State Dems are pointing out former Congresscriter Rob Simmons leaning towards teaparty wings of the Republicans.

Senator Chris Dodd released a statement announcing that he’s been diagnosed with prostate cancer. The statement below:

I wanted to let you know that I’ve been diagnosed with an early stage of prostate cancer.

This diagnosis is very common among men my age. In fact, one in six men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer at some point during their life.

Luckily, a routine test allowed my doctor to catch it at a very early stage, and my prognosis is excellent – we expect a full and speedy recovery.

I want to assure you that I’m feeling fine. As you know, we’ve been working hard to pass health care legislation and reform our nation’s financial system to protect consumers, and that hard work will continue.

After the Senate adjourns at the end of next week, I’ll have surgery to remove the cancer. After a week or two of recuperation, I expect to be right back to work.

After all, as a Member of Congress, I have great health insurance. I was able to get screened, seek the opinions of highly skilled doctors, consider all the available options, and choose the treatment that was right for me.

And I know you’ll agree that every American deserves the same ability.

We have health care legislation to pass – and an election to win. And I can’t thank you enough for your support.

Dodd supporters have been emphasizing the work he has been putting in on several major issues in Washington for the benefit of middle class consumers and taxpayers.