Q-Poll: Gubernatorial contest wide open.

Quinnipiac put a poll in the field March 9 through March 15th, and today released a statement on the results:

Among Democrats, 44 percent of voters are undecided, while businessman Ned Lamont gets 28 percent to Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy’s 18 percent. No other candidate tops 4 percent.

As I’ve said elsewhere, polls this far out aren’t terribly meaningful in terms of head to head match-ups and, as others have pointed out, with 44 percent undecided this is still wide open.

What I find interesting about this poll is that Malloy hasn’t spent a dime on paid advertising, it has been all earned media. And Malloy and the campaign has really earned every bit of it, by being the hardest working candidate that I’ve ever seen, putting out substantive statements all the time, offering tons of video, regular email updates to supporters, and so on.

Malloy’s vote share has moved 7 points without spending a dime. Ned hasn’t spent any money on paid media either, and he’s moved but a point. That tells me that the Malloy campaign’s focus on issues, on shoe leather campaigning, on direct contact with the voters, is working. The time will come for paid media, and when it does, Malloy will be competitive.

As far as it goes, this is good news for Malloy.

On the Republican side, Foley is the clear frontrunner, according to Quinnipiac.
Excerpt:

On the Republican side, Foley has emerged as a leader in the primary campaign with 30 percent, but 50 percent are undecided. No other candidate tops 4 percent.

“Like Linda McMahon, Tom Foley is the only candidate for governor who is on TV, which helps him break away from the Republican pack. Even Foley, however, is largely unknown to Republicans and the big winner is still undecided,” Dr. Schwartz said.

About the poll (from Quinnipiac’s press release):

From March 9 – 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,451 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 549 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 387 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

The entire release is available here.

  • http://connecticutbob.com Connecticut Bob

    Hi Chris. I think it would be considered proper form if you would attach a disclaimer to your posts revealing your connection to the Malloy campaign. I don’t have any issue with what you wrote at all, but I believe we should all strive for complete transparency in what is likely to be a somewhat contentious campaign. Thanks!

  • http://www.yourct.com Chris MC

    Hey Bob -
    Yeah, I’m not putting up a disclaimer on everything I post.

    Regular readers – and certainly denizens – know where I stand on that race (and most other subjects, I suspect). As I’ve said elsewhere, it is pretty obvious I am not a dispassionate observer.

    Also, I’ll point out by way of precedent that bloggers in the last cycle posting in various venues were meeting with Lamont’s Tim Tagaris, but did not routinely disclose that in their posts. As you no doubt know, at least one of them subsequently benefitted professionally from that very relationship.

    Lastly, there is no way to ensure that others who post or comment on various blogs will adhere to the standard of transparency you suggest, and since there is no way to level that playing field, I think it is a bit unfair to expect any one individual to stamp their posts with “caveat emptor”. It’s pretty much “caveat emptor” in the blogosphere – and as we know, quite often in the main stream media as well. And you’ve been around politics long enough now to know that no such standard of transparency has ever existed; it is naive to hope that it ever will.

    That said, I’ll point out that the reason that you and others (ctblogger just yesterday) can call me out like you each have is that I have been completely transparent about the fact that I have been recording Malloy and producing those videos for him. Beyond that, I made it clear who I was and what I was doing – without being asked – at my earliest opportunity to Ned himself and the staffer who accompanies Ned to his public appearances. We see each other sometimes several times in a week (saw Ned again last night) and are on entirely cordial terms.

  • http://connecticutbob.com Connecticut Bob

    I dunno if I agree with you, Chris. I think when you reach the point where you have to give your social security number to a candidate’s campaign committee, you’ve pretty much removed any pretense of objectivity from the discussion. I’m sure your regular readers know that, but this site is linked from many sources, and not all are familiar with your agenda. Any blogger that I know of who is employed in any capacity by a candidate or a PAC always puts in a disclaimer to that effect.

    That’s not to say that most bloggers don’t advocate for certain candidates or causes. But speaking for myself, I’m totally a free agent when it comes to my opinions. I’m not beholden to any candidate for any reason. I welcome the effort to convince me that one candidate is better than any other. When I choose whomever I decide to support, it’s solely based on the quality of their character and their strength on the issues I feel are important, not any present (or potential) financial rewards.

    Besides, I feel politics is only fun for amateurs. It would quickly lose any appeal for me if I had to do it for work. But that’s just me.

  • turfgrrl

    Connecticut Bob: I don’t think there’s any pretense in objectivity in political blogging, there’s just no objectivity. Everyone comes in with a perspective from somewhere. Is paid perspective any worse than blinding loyalty? Dunno. But in either case it should be transparent and disclosed.

    Chris: Put a disclaimer on.

  • http://connecticutbob.com Connecticut Bob

    You’re absolutely right, of course we’re all coming in from some perspective that isn’t entirely objective. In the past I’ve certainly made no effort at hiding my preferences. At times to the discomfort of others in my party.

    However, I have posted videos of both Dan Malloy’s and Ned Lamont’s Milford DTC appearances on my blog, and for the governor’s race in particular I’m striving to give all the candidates equal coverage. I like both guys (and indeed, some of the others) and feel confident that whomever we end up with will be much better than what we had for the last couple decades.

    • turfgrrl

      Connecticut Bob: I think the challenge this year is that there are more people running for Governor than political bloggers blogging. Equal time for all candidates is what we should be striving for since there’s really no way for your average voter out there to get to know the candidates, hence low turn out in primaries, low attendance in town committee meetings when candidates do come etc.

      • http://connecticutbob.com Connecticut Bob

        “…more people running for Governor than political bloggers…”

        Bingo! Couple that with a fairly wide open Senate race and contested offices like SoS and AG, and you don’t have enough bloggers to go around!

        Part of the problem is that many bloggers, including some of the best, are lost to campaigns, PACs, paid journalism gigs, etc., and as such they can’t say whatever they want, or even be slightly objective.

        I miss the old days when everybody and their sister started a blog and there was always a great selection of stuff to read (and by old days, I mean 2005-6…that equals decades in internet years).

        • turfgrrl

          Connecticut Bob: ah the good old days of 05-06 … it does seem like a decade ago. But in a way we have more stuff out there, it’s just not as interesting to read these days, partly not just because of the absorption of bloggers to campaigns, but also because bloggers have succeeded in forcing campaigns to be more transparent and accessible. They’re now releasing what you had to pry out of them only a few short (real world) years ago.
          Look at McMahon vs. Simmons. Who needs bloggers when they are openly slinging mud at each other? You almost have to duck and get out of the way on that one, when you click over to their campaign sites.