Ken Dixon writes about the voter registration trends in the 4th Congressional District. Two of the cities he’s identified as having a bigger Democratic registration are Bridgeport and Norwalk. This is important to the congressional campaign because it was in these two cities that Diane Farrell essentially lost the election in 2004 and 2006 to Shays. Strangely, Norwalk does not seem to be the hot spot of congressional campaigning for either campaign despite the way the numbers work. Dixon reports:

The number of Republicans in the 4th Congressional District has declined by more than 13,000 since the 2004 presidential election, while Democrats and unaffiliated voters have increased by about 20,000, according to new state registration statistics.

Democrats have increased by about 14,000 and the number of unaffiliated voters has risen by about 6,000, in a pattern that political analysts said Friday could threaten the seat Republican U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays has held since 1987.

For instance, in Bridgeport, 37,823 Democrats were registered in 2004; by Friday, there were 42,615. Four years ago in Stamford, there were 22,522 Democrats; there now are 24,214. Norwalk Democrats increased from 14,541 in 2004, to 16,464.

In fact, Democrats have gained voters in every one of the district’s 17 towns and cities except Shelton, where there were 4,404 registered in 2004 and now there are 3,983.

But even in that city, Republican enrollment dropped from 5,943 in 2004 to 4,633 heading into the home stretch of the 2008 election campaign.

Stamford will deliver more votes to Himes. The Democratic party in Stamford is well run and their GOTV efforts are stellar. But that was also the case in 2004 and 2006, so I don’t see that much swing there to make up ground for the inevitable Norwalk under performance. Bridgeport might be a different story. In 2006, then Mayor John Fabrizi’s cocaine problem derailed any Bridgeport cohesion as rivals fought for control of the party. While there’s still much fractured coalitions today, there’s no huge distraction diverting GOTV efforts on hand. Although Bridgeport is in financial trouble, and that may impact efforts to effectively attack Shays on ork related issues.

The registration trends get examined in detail as the article continues.

Joseph J. McGee, vice president for public policy and programs for the Business Council of Fairfield County, said Friday the drop in Republicans continues a 10-year district-wide trend he’s been monitoring.

“It had been a safe Republican seat carved out by Republicans in the state Legislature,” McGee said, recalling the 2001 statewide redistricting after a loss in population resulted in the loss of a congressional seat and a redrawing the state’s congressional and General Assembly districts.
“This district is trending Democratic, clearly and the Republican brand is just not selling,” McGee said. “You can see what’s happening here. The national Republican Party has moved conservative and moderates in Connecticut aren’t buying their conservative social agenda.”

Virtually every community throughout the district lost Republican voters since the last presidential election, according to a Connecticut Post examination of new registrations obtained from Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, in comparison to 2004 figures.

In the archetypal GOP bastions of Darien, Greenwich, New Canaan, where there were 6,689, 15,798 and 6,867 Republicans, respectively, in 2004, today there are now 6,173, 13,281 and 6,252.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry received 162,166 votes in the district and President Bush received 143,280.

Shays ran better than the president, tallying 152,493 votes to Democratic challenger Diane Farrell’s 138,333.

Typically Republican registered voters turnout to vote in high percentages than Democratic registered voters. Unaffiliated voters, within the district trend fiscally conservative, and Shays has strong support amongst that group. The Himes campaign strategy seems to be a push to energize the Democratic base into higher turnout numbers, but the story in the district is still how the unaffiliated break. Those voters tend to ignore the “party lines” and vote on issues. Shays strong record on conservation, energy, and fiscal responsibility resonates well. The article elaborates on the seniority issue:

Gary L. Rose, chairman of the Department of Government and Politics at Sacred Heart University, said Friday that while the numbers may be a threat, Shays must convince voters that his seniority is important to the district.

“That’s something he has to hang his hat on,” Rose said. “Even if he’s not in the majority hierarchy, what it can do is bring projects into the district, but as far as the general issues go, things are working against him.”

Conversely, Rose said that Himes, whose elected experience has been limited to Greenwich’s Board of Estimate and Taxation, needs to keep linking Shays to the unpopular Bush administration, then hope that Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate wins big in the 4th District.

On Thursday, Roll Call, the Washington-based newspaper that focuses on Congress and politics, released a poll that indicates Himes is in a dead heat with Shays. Himes has a three-point lead within the four-point margin of error in the poll.

Another respected Washington analyst, the Cook Political report, has projected the 4th District race as too close to call.

None of these polls differs much from what was reported in 2004 and 2006 when Farrell ran. And despite Rose’s assessment, the support for Obama within the 4th is not a given, considering the strong support Bush got in 2004.

McGee said that especially in the last two elections, Shays has shown what it takes to stay in office, where for the last two years he’s been the only Republican House member from New England.

“Shays has been uncanny in his ability to connect with this district,” McGee said. “His instinct is highly refined and the last two races against Diane Farrell showed it. Shays survived when others were falling by the bucketful.”

“The question for Himes, is he’s so new he has no history of political involvement,” McGee said. “He’s not a political figure, but on the other hand he’s raised a substantial amount of money. But can he convince people that firing Chris Shays and replacing him with Jim Himes is better for the 4th District?”

“Himes needs to connect Shays as closely as possible with George Bush on economics and foreign policy,” Rose said. “If he’s able to do that, Obama will have coattails.”

Voters have until 8 p.m. on Oct. 28 to register for the Nov. 4 election.

source: Advocate, GOP numbers falling in 4th District: 4th District numbers may boost Himes’ chances against Shays, By KEN DIXON , 10/18/2008