McCain campaign retrenching

Just in time for the buildup to tonight’s VP debate, the word is out that the McCain campaign is bailing on Michigan, which had been showing swing just a week ago along with Minnesota & Wisconsin.

Rove & Company’s summary of the state of the electoral union as of yesterday shows a seriously weakening situation for McCain. Obama leads, albeit within a margin of error, in states that had been holding for McCain and without which McCain cannot win. Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire have joined Minnesota (which has tenaciously stayed out of McCain’s column). Florida and North Carolina are showing a dead heat.

Five-thirty-eight has a “Super Tracker” chart that looks like a stock chart and, while this is probably not a valid way to look at it, if it were a stock chart it would tell me that Obama has broken out strongly to the positive side, after bouncing off resistance at about -2% two weeks ago. The trend is almost vertical, and the projection has stayed almost identical. Nothing goes up forever, so one way or another this curve needs to flatten out if not turn and head McCain’s way.

To what we attribute the change in direction of the polling remains to be seen. It could be tonight’s debate or, more likely, some external event. Given the volatile economic and uncertain international environment, it feels like anything could happen. That said, unless something happens soon, speculation will turn to what the implications of an Obama blowout might be on Congressional and Senate races.