Himes Ahead In New Poll

Survey USA has a new poll out showing Jim Himes ahead of Chris Shays.

The Advocate reports:

 Pollsters interviewed 602 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, reporting Thursday that Himes leads with 48 percent to Shays’ 45 percent.

Also in the poll, respondents gave Shays a 43 percent approval rating, and Himes, 39 percent.

“This reflects what’s going on in the district right now. It reflects that the last (House) Republican in New England is in a tight fight,” said Jay Leve, chief executive officer of SurveyUSA. “There’s a Democratic breeze blowing from one side of the country to the other, and Shays is caught up in that.”

Sure there may be a Democratic breeze, but haven’t we seen this before?

IN CT-4, Farrell Catches Shays
The race between Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Diane Farrell (D) for Connecticut’s 4th congressional district “is now tied and is being driven more than ever by the war in Iraq,” according to a new Hartford Courant poll.

The poll found each candidate with 43% support among likely voters, “reflecting a gain of 2 percentage points for Farrell and a loss of 3 percentage points for Shays since a similar poll in early October when violence in Iraq began to escalate.”

Key finding: “The new poll shows unaffiliated voters shifting toward Farrell. In three weeks, she has erased a 16-point deficit to pull almost even with the moderate Shays in unaffiliated support, 38% to 39%.”

The problem will be turnout. And without a strong Democratic voter turnout in Norwalk and Bridgeport, Himes won’t win. With no candidate to run against Bruce Morris in the 140th, you wouldn’t know there’s an election going on in South Norwalk. That district has underperformed for years, mostly due to the ineptitude of the District B Democratic leadership, I say that loosely, of Bobby Burgess.

Norwalk this year seems headed to an even greater level of apathy. The Shays campaign should also be concerned. The Norwalk Republicans don’t do much to generate voter turnout either. They can’t even count on the 700 votes they might have gotten had the Norwalk Republicans run a candidate in the 140th.