McCain’s last stand

From McCain’s point of view, polls have been steadily deteriorating over the last two weeks. Simulations being run of possible outcomes show a steady and significant increase in the likelihood of a decisive Obama win. Consistent with this, my daily survey of polling and swing-state tilt may have reached a tipping point.

Today, two key states that had been leaning McCain are now leaning Obama – Nevada and Virginia. Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida have moved from solidly McCain to leaning McCain.

New Hampshire and Ohio – until today leaning McCain – are now looking like tossups. Going back to the 269 to 269 post, it was clear that, barring an unpredictable flip in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, there was no way to make the math work for McCain if he loses Ohio. Not possible.

Other than taxes, McCain hopes that foreign policy is his trump card, and the subject of tonight’s debate is foreign policy. Tonight may be McCain’s moment, the turning point after many false starts: the thwarted Lieberman gambit; the Palin gambit; the “I’d fire the Chairman of the SEC gambit”; the “I’m suspending my campaign gambit”; the “I’m going to Washington to get this legislation done” gambit; the “I’m postponing the Friday September 26th Debate” gambit.

If Obama can win the debate in the eyes of the people of Ohio or Florida, that is, if the trend continues to move toward Obama in one or both of these two states, it may be impossible for McCain to prevent a landslide loss.

If that happens, we’ll start talking about just how long Obama’s coat tails in the Congressional and Senate races are going to be, and whether the Republican Party is facing a real prospect of being in effect a regional rather than a national political party.

  • Anonymous

    Is it time to drop Sarah Palin from the ticket?

  • city girl

    YES!!!! she should never have been on.

  • Anonymous

    If I see a major flaw in John McCain, it’s that he seems to act without careful deliberation, case in point, his selection of Sarah Palin, someone he hardly knew at all. He is known for his hot temper, but I suppose many people have that, but it’s critically important to think things through carefully before speaking or acting. His recent suspension of his campaign, which lasted about one day, makes him seem yet more mercurial.

  • Anonymous

    Re: Republican Party is facing a real prospect of being in effect a regional rather than a national political party.
    Just what we need, a democratic controlled country. We might as well start packing our bags now and moving to a country of our choice because if this is the downfall of the Republican party we won’t be able to afford to live here anymore.
    God Help Us!

  • Anonymous

    Its great isn’t it? They say its going to get worse,and where is all the money going to come from now to save Norwalks sorry ass? It won’t come from McCain or Rell.Rell is already talking cutting everything else that was promised.So who cares who gets elected finding somewhere else seems like a no brainer.

  • Anonymous

    #4 – you can’t afford to live here now. You going to blame that on the Dems after the GOP has run the show for the last eight years?

  • barnstorm

    #4, if you’re so worried about a democratically-controlled country, you ought to be worried about a geezer & Caribou Barbie instead.At least Obama has a grip on reality.

    Shoot, I’ll even help you pack.(I find it amusingly ironic when the “love it or leave it” shoe is on the other foot.)

    IMHO, I thought the debate was a toss-up. Obama started strong & Mc Cain managed to get him a little flustered late. McCain was solidly stating the same baloney he’s relied on for a few weeks now and that makes him seem forceful, and determined, despite the fact he still probably isn’t sure how many homes he owns. Obama seems unable to shut down McCain’s baloney generator. It made McCain appear to finish stronger.

    I doubt anyone’s mind was changed as a result.

  • Old Timer

    The polls during the week will tell the story. I think Obama will come up a little, but the debate was no real decisive win.

  • Anonymous

    No clear-cut winner in first debate, pundits say

  • Chris MC

    If Obama kept it close or even, it is a win. McCain needed to put him away on foreign policy. If the polls say he failed to do that, he’s got no cards left to play.

  • Anonymous

    Exactly. The tie goes to the challenger in cases like this. Obama had the most to gain by holding his own. McCain came away looking cranky and condescending.

  • Anonymous #69

    The NYT suggested that McCain “scored points” in the debate by calling Obama naive. The way the Times wrote about it, you’d think that simply uttering the words “naive” and “naivete” scores points.

    If that’s really true, I’m a little surprised Obama and his proxies aren’t constantly hammering on the “naivete” of believing the Iraq war would be over quickly, we’d be greeted as liberators, the cost could be contained, Afghanistan is won/Taliban on the run, etc.

  • anonymous

    The debate was a virtual tie, which means it went to Obama. But I told my husband If I were Obama, I would be running for the hills because whoever wins after Bush is going to be blamed for his mess in the eyes of the American public. Not in the history books – they will print the truth. But the people living with the tax increases instead of the tax cuts will blame the next guy. And if it is a Democrat, it will be the same old chant, Democrats always raise taxes. People will be too short sighted to remember the $700 billion bail out and the unprecedented National debt Bush has gotten us into. So I wouldn’t blame Obama if he ran and hid instead of facing that kind of abuse.

  • Anonymous

    Nah, if it were Bush running, he’d run and hide. Obama knows exactly what he’s getting into.

  • Anonymous

    From Forbes.com

    Obama vs. McCain: Early Results

    Winning a debate is no guarantee that a candidate will win an election, and online polls open to all comers are flawed at best. That aside, as of last read, and with over a quarter of a million responses, Barack Obama leads John McCain 51% to 35% in response to a post-debate MSNBC poll on who won tonight’s contest. Only 6.4% respondents agreed with my earlier assertion that the debate was basically a wash.

    Obama is already ahead of McCain in national polls and in the electoral college forecasts, but he’ll need to keep working hard; under some scenarios, John McCain could come out ahead by taking just a few strategic states in which he’s polling close to Obama.

    From ABC News:

    USA Today/Gallop Poll: Obama Did Better in First Debate
    Obama Scores Big on Proposal to Change the Country
    MARK MEMMOTT and JILL LAWRENCE

    September 28, 2008—

    A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows 46% of people who watched Friday night’s presidential debate say Democrat Barack Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain; 34% said McCain did better.

    Obama scored even better — 52%-35% — when debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems.

    More than six in 10 people or 63% in the one-day poll, taken Saturday, said they watched the first faceoff in Oxford, Miss. For those 701 people, the margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.

    The poll suggested the debate was to some extent a wash for McCain: 21% of those who watched say it gave them a more favorable view of him, 21% say less favorable and 56% say it didn’t change their opinion much.

    Three in 10 said their opinion of Obama became more favorable after seeing the debate, compared to 14% who said less favorable and 54% who said it didn’t make much difference.

    More than one-third of viewers, or 37%, said they had less confidence in McCain to fix economic problems after seeing the debate; 23% said more. For Obama, the survey results were 34% more confidence, 26% less.

    Neither candidate broke away on national security and foreign policy. About a third of viewers said they had more confidence in each man on that front after the debate, and slightly less in each case said they had less confidence.

    Obama held a 5-percentage-point lead over McCain, 49%-45%, in the Gallup tracking poll taken Wednesday through Friday. Tomorrow’s poll will be the first to include impact from the debate.

    From the Associated Press:

    2 quick polls give Obama edge in debate

    WASHINGTON (AP) — A pair of one-night polls gave Barack Obama a clear edge over John McCain in their first presidential debate.

    Fifty-one percent said Obama, the Democrat, did a better job in Friday night’s faceoff while 38 percent preferred the Republican McCain, according to a CNN-Opinion Research Corp. survey of adults.

    Obama was widely considered more intelligent, likable and in touch with peoples’ problems, and by modest margins was seen as the stronger leader and more sincere. Most said it was McCain who spent more time attacking his opponent.

    About six in 10 said each did a better job than expected. Seven in 10 said each seemed capable of being president.

    In a CBS News poll of people not committed to a candidate, 39 percent said Obama won the debate, 24 percent said McCain and 37 percent called it a tie. Twice as many said Obama understands their needs than said so about McCain.

    Seventy-eight percent said McCain is prepared to be president, about the same proportion of uncommitted voters as said so before the debate. Sixty percent said Obama is ready — a lower score than McCain, but a solid 16-percentage-point improvement from before the debate.

    In another Obama advantage in the CBS poll, far more said their image of him had improved as a result of the debate than said it had worsened. More also said their view of McCain had gotten better rather than worse, but by a modest margin.

    The CNN poll involved telephone interviews with 524 adults who watched the debate and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The CBS survey involved online interviews with 483 uncommitted voters who saw the debate and had an error margin of plus or minus 4 points. It was conducted by Knowledge Networks, which initially selected the respondents by telephone.

  • New Name

    Barnstorm – I must know you in real life ’cause I thought I was the one who came up with the term “Caribou Barbie.” Or did I hear it and embrace it and only think I came up with it. Damn, and I thought I was so funny. Of course, the whole situation isn’t funny at all – it’s scarier than hell.

  • Old Timer

    The SNL Palin/Couric interview was frightening in that it was so accurate. She should not be running any political organization, much less second in command to a president.
    Caribou Barbie pretty well tells her whole story.

  • Anonymous

    Senator Obama says that instead of worrying about
    immigrants learning English, Americans
    need to make sure your child speaks Spanish. Excuse me?

  • Anonymous

    Studies say that by 2040 caucasians in this country will be the minority. If you want to do business with the majority, maybe it’s a good idea to anticipate where the trend is so you can meet the needs of the marketplace. Sounds like good business planning to me.

  • Anonymous

    #18: I am Hispanic and I strongly believe that English should be the language of this country. If I were to move to a Spanish-speaking country, I surely would not expect that my “comfort language,” English, would become the language there.

    Oh. By the way, I am a professional who has advanced college degrees. Some find that surprising because of my name.

  • Anonymous

    National polls put Barack Obama out in front
    By Joe Dwinell
    Monday, September 29, 2008
    http://www.bostonherald.com

    Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in national polls with likely voters flocking to the Illinois senator following Friday’s debate.

    Presidential tracking polls have Obama over McCain in the past weekend. Can Sarah Palin help the ticket climb back again? We’ll see Thursday when the Alaska governor faces off against Delaware Sen. Joe Biden in the lone vice presidential debate.

    The numbers:

    The Gallup Daily poll has Obama pulling away 50-42 percent over McCain. But, the full measure of their debate performances won’t be fully calculated until tomorrow, Gallup reports.

    The Rasmussen Daily poll also has Obama up 50-44. Rasmussen also reports Americans are down in the dumps over the economy, with only 11 percent saying the country is moving in the right direction.

    A USA Today/Gallup poll out yesterday rated Obama the better debater 48-34 percent.

  • Anonymous

    More than half of the whopping $426.9 million Barack Obama has raised has come from small donors whose names the Obama campaign won’t disclose.

    And questions have arisen about millions more in foreign donations the Obama campaign has received that apparently have not been vetted as legitimate.

    Unlike the McCain campaign, which has made its complete donor database available online, the Obama campaign has not identified donors for nearly half the amount he has raised, according to the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP).

    The FEC breakdown of the Obama campaign has identified a staggering $222.7 million as coming from contributions of $200 or less. Only $39.6 million of that amount comes from donors the Obama campaign has identified.

  • Anonymous

    I am ecstatic because this is an ABC campaign–Anybody But Clinton!

  • Anonymous

    I am ecstatic because this election will bring us the end of the GOP as we know it and relegate it to the dung heap of history!

    Of course, we’ll have to watch that steaming pile, because the maggots that feed on it will become the next iteration of the party. It never pays to be too careful…

  • Anonymous

    Isn’t is amazing that the democraps who espouse public education for all attend the priciest private elite colleges and universities?

  • Anonymous #69

    Isn’t it amazing that you wrote “democraps”? So clever! Bravo! I’m sure all the top magazines and newspapers are calling for your resume…

  • Anonymous

    Isn’t it amazing that defenders of the GOP just repeat the same tired old attack slogans over and over and over ad nauseam?

    Brawwk! Tax and spend! Brawwk! Liberal Media! Brawwk! Gotcha journalism! Brawwk! Terrorist Sympathizer!

  • indy voter

    #24-you are the typical left wing fall off the earth liberal who thinks that the democratic party is the ever powerful OZ and that all others are your munchkins to kick around as you see fit.
    Do you honestly believe that the democrats should be the only party? Are you really that ignorant? I don’t like to speak ill of anyone but your remarks are repulsive. Why can’t people share dialoge and ideas without these disgusting comments? There should always be balanced government and then we wouldn’t be in the crisis we are in. Don’t go blaming the republicans for all of this because its your party who has the majority and its your party that controlls the votes. This is why independant voters top the list of registered voters because its people like you who give the parties a bad name. That goes for the right winged fall off the earth conservatives that can’t see compromise if it bit them in the arse. For the record, neither party has a candidate worth voting for and people should stand up and let these party heads know how disappointed the American people are of their choices! It trickles down to local government as well and thats why nothing ever seems to get accomplished and we all sit here and bitch.
    Have a lovely day!

  • Anonymous

    Isn’t it amazing that GOP trolls – even those who “claim” to be independent – assume every criticism of their party is a shout-out for the Dems?

  • Way to go Bill

    In a clip taken from a Sept. 25 interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” Clinton says: “I think the responsibility that the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress, or by me when I was president, to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

    “The biggest mistake, by the way, that contributed to the current circumstance that almost nobody talks about is the repeal, after decades, of something called the uptick rule, which allows the hedge funds, heavily leveraged and others, to just drive down the market without any kind of automatic stoppers,” Clinton said.

  • barnstorm

    #16,

    If it was you that coined the moniker “Caribou Barbie” my hat is off to you. I thought it was great when I first read it and have used it ever since. Everyone who has heard it also thinks it’s terrific. You should have it copyrighted….lol

    #24,
    Yes, it may be the end of the GOP as we know it. However the GOP of George Bush isn’t the same GOP as the one in most history books. The GOP has traditionally been for small government & less government interference. Bush’s GOP has been all about fiscal irresponsibility, a LOT more government, and (incredibly) asking the American public to subsidize all the excesses (when did you ever think a republican-led administration would foster socialism in order to fix it’s lack of accountability?)
    Ronald Reagan would be ashamed to be associated with guys like Bush.
    The shards of the old GOP have been hijacked by the ultra-right moralist whack jobs who can no more claim righteousness than the Taliban.
    Add it all together and what have you got? A party that let itself succumb to greed and self-serving interests. They deserve everything they won’t get in November…(votes)

  • Anonymous

    And you assume all republicans subscribe to the far right? You are sadly mistaken if you do.

  • Anonymous

    Nope, don’t assume that all republicans subscribe to the far right. Only the ones that have been able to corrupt what the party stands for. Unless those who aren’t aligned with the extremists start doing something, the party is going to lose all support except extremists (and those who just aren’t paying very much attention).